20th-ranked FSU routs Samford

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Christian Ponder threw for 167 yards and four touchdowns in just one half of action, as 20th-ranked Florida State began the post-Bobby Bowden era with a 59-6 rout of Samford at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Bowden, who was also the head coach at Samford from 1959-62, spent 34 years with the Seminoles. He reluctantly called it quits after a 7-6 mark in 2009 and Jimbo Fisher, a former Samford quarterback who had been anointed the FSU head coach in waiting after three years as a Bowden assistant, finally took over on the Seminole sideline.

Ty Jones ran for 107 yards and a score for the Seminoles (1-0), who dominated from the start and outgained the Bulldogs 481-300. Jermaine Thomas and Chris Thompson also ran for touchdowns and Lonnie Pryor caught pair of scoring passes from Ponder, who finished 12-of-14 with an interception.

Dustin Taliaferro completed 22-of-32 passes for 174 yards with an interception for Samford (0-1), which plays in the FCS out of the Southern Conference.

Florida State's first offensive series ended with an interception of a tipped Ponder pass inside the Samford 10-yard line, but the Seminoles came right back and marched 47 yards in six plays for a score on their next possession. Ponder keyed the set with a 22-yard pass to Thomas on 3rd-and-2 and finished it with a four-yard toss to Pryor for a 7-0 lead.

Ponder threw a 15-yard scoring pass to Bert Reed early in the second quarter to cap a five-play, 51-yard series and the Seminoles blocked a punt deep in Samford territory soon after, leading to a four-yard touchdown run by Thomas for a 21-0 cushion with 11:21 to play in the opening half.

The Seminoles continued to pile it on in the second quarter, as Greg Reid returned a punt 74 yards for a score and Ponder connected with Pryor for an eight-yard touchdown pass on the first play after an interception to make it 35-0. Ponder then finished Florida State's next offensive series with an 11- yard TD pass to Taiwan Easterling before Samford finally got on the board as the half concluded with a 41-yard field goal from Cameron Yaw.

EJ Manuel took over for Ponder to start the second half and was intercepted on Florida State's first possession. The Bulldogs converted the turnover into a 32-yard field goal from Yaw midway through the third quarter.

The Seminoles needed just two plays to answer, as Manuel threw a 14-yard pass to Reed and Jones found a huge hole in the line on the way to a 57-yard touchdown run.

Thompson's nine-yard scoring run on the first play of the fourth quarter extended the advantage to 56-6 and Dustin Hopkins kicked a 24-yard field goal with just over 6 1/2 minutes left to account for the final margin.

Game Notes

Fisher became the first Florida State head coach to win his debut since Larry Jones in 1971. Bowden lost to Memphis State in 1976...The 42 points were the most for Florida State in the first half since 2000 against Duke...Manuel connected on 10-of-13 throws for 129 yards...Florida State visits Oklahoma next week.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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