49ers aim for coveted bye in visit to St. Louis

Football Betting Lines

12/30/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a long time since the San Francisco 49ers played some meaningful football in the regular season's final week. Thanks to a great year under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, they'll be doing so later in January as well.

Having already captured their first division title and postseason trip in nine years, one would think the Niners would be antsy at getting postseason play underway. However, a victory over the St. Louis Rams this Sunday at the Edward Jones Dome would give San Francisco a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs.

That's an opportunity the 49ers would love to jump on.

"Obviously, any time you'd love to lock up a bye, you'd take it I think," said quarterback Alex Smith, calling the possibility of a bye week a great opportunity.

Smith and the rest of the 49ers aren't worried about the risk of rust that comes with having a week off, but it does work in their favor that this regular-season finale means something. San Francisco can clinch the bye and the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win or a loss by the New Orleans Saints to the Carolina Panthers. Both games are slated for 1 p.m. (et) kickoffs.

San Francisco actually had a chance to lock up the bye last weekend after a 19-17 win over Seattle, but the Saints were able to knock off the Falcons the following day to keep pace.

Still, thanks to four field goals from David Akers, including the game-winning 39-yarder late in the fourth quarter, the 49ers moved to 12-3 after recording their second straight win. They are now looking for their first 13-win season since 1997 and haven't won six road games in a single campaign since 1996.

Smith was credited with his fifth come-from-behind win of the season, and four of those have now come on the road to match Joe Montana's club record set in 1989.

San Francisco's current quarterback and its star-studded defense didn't have much trouble when they hosted St. Louis back on Dec. 4, cruising to a 26-0 victory behind four Akers field goals and a pair of 50-yard-plus touchdown passes by Smith.

Despite that blowout win, San Francisco will still play it cautious with the 2-13 Rams.

"Yeah, no question, nothing to lose," said Smith of the Rams' mindset. "Nothing to lose from both coaches and players alike. So, potentially every trick in the book will get thrown at you, offense and defense, special teams. I'm sure they're going to throw everything at us."

Embattled Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, who has begun to hear rumors of his possible departure at season's end, also expects the Niners to give his club its all given what is on the line.

"Only four teams get [a bye], right? Two in each [conference]," said Spagnuolo. "I do think it makes a big difference. Guys get healthy. I'm sure you're going to talk to Jim [Harbaugh], but I'm sure he's telling you that they're going after it."

The Rams will simply be going after some points after getting shut out last weekend in a 27-0 loss to a Pittsburgh club that was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a high ankle sprain.

St. Louis, though, was without its starting signal-caller in Sam Bradford for a second straight week and the fifth time in 2011 due to a high ankle sprain of his own. Kellen Clemens got a second straight start, but passed for just 91 yards.

It marked the second six-game slide for the Rams this season and dropped them to 10-37 overall under Spagnuolo.

Bradford would like to get on the field for this game, but was unable to practice early in the week and has yet to see the progress in the ankle that he needs.

"This week was really the first time that we had done much, and to be honest it didn't feel great in the little that we did do," Bradford said of his ankle. "So as far as that, until it gets better, until we do some more I really can't tell you [if he'll play]."

SERIES HISTORY

The Rams have a slim 61-60-2 edge in their overall regular-season series with the 49ers, but San Francisco has taken six of the past seven meetings between the teams following its 26-0 home shutout of St. Louis in Week 13. The Niners swept their home-and-home set with the Rams in both 2008 and 2009, with St. Louis earning a split last season because of a 25-17 home triumph in Week 16 that triggered the dismissal of then-San Francisco head coach Mike Singletary immediately afterward. The 49ers had prevailed in three straight trips to the Edward Jones Dome prior to that loss.

The 49ers also bested the Rams in the lone playoff encounter between the clubs, a 30-3 verdict at Candlestick Park in the 1989 NFC Championship when the Rams where still based in Los Angeles.

Spagnuolo is 1-4 against San Francisco during his two-plus seasons at the helm, while Harbaugh won his only previous matchup with both St. Louis and Spagnuolo as an NFL head coach with last month's victory.

WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL

Clock control and a solid ground game led by Frank Gore (1202 rushing yards, 8 TD) is the key to the Niners' offense, but the receivers could certainly benefit from an extra week off. Both Kyle Williams (20 receptions, 3 TD) and Ted Ginn Jr. (19 receptions) are questionable for this game due to a concussion and ankle sprain, respectively, while tight end Delanie Walker (19 receptions, 3 TD) is out after fracturing his jaw last week. That leaves wideouts Michael Crabtree (64 receptions, 2 TD) and Brett Swain as the only healthy options for Smith (2931 passing yards, 16 TD, 5 INT) along with tight end Vernon Davis (59 receptions, 6 TD). The Niners solved that problem last week by running for 178 yards, getting 83 and a score from Gore and another career-high 73 yards on 12 carries from rookie Kendall Hunter (397 rushing yards, 2 TD). Davis and Crabtree were targeted a combined 14 times by Smith and partnered up to make nine catches for 139 yards. That was the bulk of offense for Smith, who ended with just 179 yards passing but did not turn the ball over.

The Rams are a perfect team to run the football against, as they rank dead last against opposing ground games with 154.5 rushing yards allowed per contest. They gave up 144 rushing yards in the first meeting with the 49ers and saw the Steelers rack up 169 yards and three touchdowns on the ground this past weekend. That run-heavy strategy also took away the strength of the Rams, which is their pass rush. St. Louis is sixth in defending the pass (206.4 ypg) thanks to outstanding defensive ends James Hall (45 tackles, 5 sacks), Chris Long (34 tackles, 13 sacks) and rookie Robert Quinn (22 tackles, 5 sacks). Long, though, is still bothered by an ankle issue and cornerback Josh Gordy (40 tackles, 3 INT) has an abdominal injury. They'll need Gordy given that the Rams other starting corner, Justin King (58 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), won't play due to a shoulder problem that requires surgery. With the Steelers offering plenty of chances, linebacker James Laurinaitis (133 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) had a game- high 13 tackles, while fellow linebacker Chris Chamberlain (74 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had eight. Corner Rod Hood (16 tackles, 1 INT) notched seven stops, while Gordy had an interception and safety Quintin Mikell (84 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) made six tackles as the unit was held without a sack.

WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL

As much as St. Louis can struggle on defense, it has been even worse on the other side of the ball. The Rams' 11.1 points per game is ranked last in the NFL, while they are also 31 out of 32 teams with an average of 281.7 total yards per game. The lone bright spot in last week's shutout that featured just 232 yards of offense was running back Steven Jackson (1069 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 6 total TD) logging 103 yards to surpass 1,000 yards rushing for a club-record seventh straight season. Backup Cadillac Williams (344 rushing yards) added 42 to the Rams' 164-yard rushing total, while Clemens (320 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) struggled to complete just nine of his 24 pass attempts while getting sacked three times. Like Bradford (2164 passing yards, 6 TD, 6 INT) before him, Clemens looked a lot towards wide receiver Brandon Lloyd (64 receptions, 4 TD), who had three receptions for 29 yards on 12 targets against Pittsburgh. Only three other St. Louis players caught passes, with wideout Danario Alexander (23 receptions, 2 TD), rookie tight end Lance Kendricks (25 receptions) and Jackson garnering one each. Clemens will need more from the likes of wide receivers Brandon Gibson (35 receptions, 1 TD) and Dominique Curry in this game against a tough run defense.

Yes, the 49ers do rank first in the league in scoring (13.5 ppg) and run defense (75.1 ypg), but had both those averages eclipsed against a desperate Seahawks club last week. In fact, Seattle's Marshawn Lynch ran for 107 yards and a score to end a pair of streaks for the 49ers. It was the first time San Francisco gave up a rushing touchdown this season and marked the first time an enemy back ran for over 100 yards in team's past 36 contests. Perhaps playing without star linebacker Patrick Willis (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) for a third straight game due to a hamstring injury finally caught up to the Niners. Larry Grant (38 tackles, 2 sacks) started in Willis' place again and came up with 11 tackles and a forced fumble which safety Donte Whitner (60 tackles, 2 INT) recovered, while fellow inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (133 tackles, 1 sack) had a game-high 12 stops to go with a sack. Defensive end Ray McDonald (38 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and rookie linebacker Aldon Smith (35 tackles, 14 sacks) also came up with sacks, with Smith extending his club's single-season rookie record. The 2011 first-round pick is one sack shy of setting the NFL rookie sack record as well. Cornerback Carlos Rogers (39 tackles, 6 INT) is key to the 49ers' secondary, but is questionable with a knee ailment. He is tied with safety Dashon Goldson (64 tackles, 6 INT) for the club lead in interceptions.

KEYS TO THE GAME

The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-26 turnover ratio, having logged 36 takeaways to 10 turnovers this season. With the Rams likely to start Clemens again this weekend, San Francisco's playmaking linebackers and ball-hawking secondary could increase that number this weekend.

Alex Smith has been steady all season and doesn't turn the ball over. That is because he knows he doesn't have to force things thanks to Akers, who has hit an NFL-record 42 field goals this season. Akers also has a career-high 156 points on the year, making him the first player in the league to go over the 150 mark since LaDainian Tomlinson had 186 in 2006.

The Rams have nothing to lose, so they should be nice and relaxed. There is also some thought that they are playing for the job of Spagnuolo, meaning the entire roster should be giving 100 percent in this otherwise meaningless game. San Francisco knows a team with nothing to lose is a dangerous one, so St. Louis will need to capitalize on that mental edge.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Many are fairly wondering just how much effort the 49ers will put into this game with an eye on a bigger prize down the road. After all, San Francisco can still get a bye with a loss. However, the Niners have showed a blue-collar attitude all season long, and it would be shocking if Harbaugh let his players take their feet off the gas, especially early on. That's bad news for a banged- up and overmatched Rams team that took a big step back this year and could see some big changes after this contest.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: 49ers 23, Rams 6

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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