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11/06/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Kitna said at the beginning of the season that the Lions would win 10 games, and many of the prognosticators scoffed at his bold prediction.
After Sunday's 44-7 romp of the Denver Broncos at Ford Field, Kitna and the Lions are the ones laughing, as the team holds a 6-2 record following its third straight win.
A team that had been a laughingstock in the league for the past several seasons is now starting to generate more and more respect, especially after posting its biggest margin of victory since a 55-20 win against the Bears on November 27, 1997.
The team has seemed to be getting stronger as the season moves along, especially the running game and the defense, which were considered the glaring weaknesses of the squad coming into the campaign.
The Lions have now won their first four home games to start a season for the first time since the 1993 campaign, and have put the embarrassing blowouts against Philadelphia and Washington behind them.
One thing you can't help but notice about the squad is how much fun they are having. You couldn't help but crack a smile as 340-pound lineman Shaun Rogers huffed and puffed and bowled his way into the end zone for a 66-yard interception return in the fourth quarter. The feeling remained on the Lions bench after the score, as players gathered round Rogers, waived a towel at him to cool him off and handed him an oxygen mask as everyone had a chuckle at the big man's expense.
"I enjoyed how physically we played today," said coach Rod Marinelli of the victory. "It showed up in the run game and on our run defense. This was just a great team win."
THE TURNOVERS KEEP COMING
The Lions generated another four turnovers in the game (one interception and three fumbles) to increase their league-leading total to 24 on the season.
More importantly, the defense scored a pair of touchdowns off of turnovers. Rogers' interception return and Dewayne White's three-yard fumble return early in the third quarter were major components in the triumph, while the offense generated another late touchdown after Detroit recovered a fumble in the fourth quarter.
Detroit applied consistent pressure on the quarterback as well. as the team racked up five sacks and was often in the face of the Denver signal-caller.
The biggest play came when the team knocked starting quarterback Jay Cutler out of the game early in the second quarter. On the play, Cutler was sacked by Rogers and as he was pulling down the quarterback, two Lions defenders collided into the up-raised left leg of Cutler. The quarterback subsequently limped into the locker room.
Patrick Ramsey took over under center for the Broncos and the Lions were smelling blood as the team used every opportunity they could to knock around the quarterback.
They sacked Ramsey four times and caused him to turn the ball over twice.
The first turnover occurred after the Broncos got the ball at their own eight- yard line. Corey Smith came charging to the quarterback's blind side and stripped the ball out of Ramsey's hands. White scooped the ball up and took it into the end zone to stake Detroit to a 23-0 lead.
On Rogers' aforementioned touchdown, Denver was in Detroit territory trying to make a game out of the contest. However, on 3rd-and-6, the Lions got pressure up the middle and Ramsey had to hurry his throw, which was tipped by a Lion in the face of Ramsey and landed in the hands of Rogers, who chugged his way into the end zone on his first career interception.
"Shaun was moving," said White. "It was exciting to watch. When you get points like that, you just want to get more and more. You get greedy. It's fun when it happens."
THE RESURGENT RUNNING GAME
The last time the Lions had a good running game, the team was still playing in Pontiac and the man shouldering the burden was the one-of-a-kind Barry Sanders.
However, the past couple of weeks have seen the ground game return to Detroit, and much of the credit has to go to Kevin Jones.
Since coming back from a foot injury that kept him sidelined for the first two games of the season, Jones has steadily improved, and the Detroit offense has become more balanced because of that fact.
While his numbers were a little less than the previous week, as he had only 71 yards on 17 carries, he helped to set the tempo of the game on the first drive as he carried the ball on the first four offensive plays for Detroit and totaled 30 yards.
Also contributing to the running game was T.J. Duckett, who finished the game with five carries for 48 yards, including a three-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.
The running helped the Lions maintain control of the ball in the first half, as the team held the ball for almost 19 minutes and scored on all four drives of the half, although three of those drives ended in field goals.
The team finished the game with 130 yards rushing on 29 attempts.
Jon Kitna threw his first touchdown pass in four games as he finished the day 16-for-31 with 252 yards and two TDs. A good performance against a team that is one of the best in the league in pass defense.
He was most impressive after the third quarter goal-line stand, as he needed only two plays to get his team into the end zone. On the first play, Kitna lofted a soft pass to Sean McHugh, who took the pass along the right sideline and raced to the Denver 49 on a 46-yard play. Following that, Kitna found Shaun McDonald to the left and the receiver raced past everyone into the end zone for a 30-0 lead with 6:35 left in the third.
"Coach Martz, that's just his style," said Kitna. "Most teams would have tried to run the ball out and establish some field position, but he didn't blink. He told us all week that play would be open."
A balanced offensive attack is the goal of every team. Through the first few games this season, the Lions predominantly passed the ball and had success. However, as the season goes along and the temperature starts to plummet, a team needs to be able to run the ball if they want to have success.
The past couple of games have shown that there are teeth to be found within the Lions' running game, which can mean good things for this club as they get into the meat of their schedule.
KICKING HIS WAY INTO THE RECORD BOOKS
Jason Hanson finished the day with three field goals, including a season-high 53-yarder in the second quarter, and five extra points to bring his career total to 1,605. That moved him past Eddie Murray for 11th place on the NFL's all-time scoring list.
"They were telling me about some of the milestones," said Hanson. "Old man stuff. It just feels good to make them in a win and a big game."
UP NEXT
The Lions hit the road this week, as the team travels to sunny Arizona for a game against the 3-5 Cardinals in Glendale.
Detroit will be looking to get some revenge on the Cardinals, as the Lions lost to the team last Nov. 19, a 17-10 result which snapped Detroit's three- game winning streak against Arizona.
Detroit's series with the Cardinals is the oldest in the Lions' history. The first time these teams met was on October 5, 1930, when the Portsmouth Spartans and Chicago Cardinals played to a scoreless tie.
Following Arizona, the Lions have big games against the Giants and Packers on Thanksgiving. The team needs to focus and not look ahead if they want to depart Arizona with their seventh win of the season.
As long as the defense keeps up the pressure on the quarterback and generates turnovers, and the team continues to pound the ball with the running game to set up the pass, the Lions should have no problem against a shaky Arizona team.
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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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