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08/06/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The parity of the cap-era NHL claimed another victim this past week when the Chicago Blackhawks traded Stanley Cup winning goalie Antti Niemi in favor of an aging Marty Turco and a paltry $1.45 million in cap relief.
Whether this move pays dividends for the Hawks is unknown, but walking away from a 26-year old goaltender who put up impressive numbers in the regular season and didn't wilt in the playoffs could prove as a major source of dismay.
What's even more surprising is the number of young goalies who enjoyed tremendous success a season ago.
Aside from Niemi, fellow freshmen Tuukka Rask and Jimmy Howard had no trouble cutting their teeth as everyday starters despite having combined for only 10 games NHL experience prior to last season.
Expect more of the same this year, and look for other netminders to make their mark and perhaps steal away a job from a seasoned starter.
In Los Angeles, Jonathan Quick better look over his shoulder because Jonathan Bernier is quickly approaching everyday duties and could be poised for a breakout year.
Despite putting up respectable numbers and backstopping the Kings to their first playoff berth since 2002, Quick could find himself battling for minutes with Bernier, who was named the American Hockey League's Most Outstanding Goalie for the Manchester Monarchs last season.
In his brief three-game stint with the Kings in 2010, Bernier went 3-0 with a 1.30 goals-against average, .957 save percentage and a shutout.
Although Quick is a promising youngster himself, the future throne in L.A. looks to belong to Bernier.
Another goalie looking to emerge from the shadows of obscurity is San Jose's Thomas Greiss.
Having trained under the wing of KHL-bound backstop Evgeni Nabokov, Greiss will have every opportunity this season to show he is ready to steal the spotlight.
His competition between the pipes will be newly acquired Anterro Niittymaki, who will be likely pegged to receive the majority of starts.
But unlike the many serviceable years provided by Nabokov, the Sharks no longer have the luxury of relying on a clear-cut number, giving Greiss a perfect platform to prove he can get the job done.
While he didn't see much action last year, the Cologne, Germany native proved capable of weathering the storm when called upon, a fact reflected by his sparkling .922 save percentage.
Speaking of sparkling, Jacob Markstrom, the shiniest of goaltending prospects, has made the move from Sweden and should challenge for a position on the Florida Panthers roster this season.
With Thomas Vokoun the clear-cut starter, the 20-year old Swede will have to win the backup role from journeyman Scott Clemmensen.
This past year, the 31st overall pick in 2008 put up astounding numbers for Brynas IF of the Swedish Elite League while also representing his country at the 2010 World Championship. As a result, the 6'4" phenom has drawn favorable comparisons to fellow countryman Henrik Lundqvist.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Markstrom start the year in the AHL, but based on his raw skill and athleticism, Panthers GM Dale Tallon might be forced to give the kid a shot sooner rather than later.
Whether it's parity or productivity, the emergence of young goaltenders has proven to become a staple of success for many franchises across the NHL landscape.
<< Alabama tops coaches' preseason poll
McLean, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending national champion Alabama sits atop
the preseason USA Today coaches' football poll.
Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram returns at running back for the Crimson Tide
and quarterback Greg McElroy is als
<< Relentless Randle ready to enter Hall of Fame
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -John Randle was a trash-talking, twitch-quick defensive tackle who intimidated and distracted opponents on his way to the sixth-most sacks in NFL history, fueled by a competitive drive that pushed an undrafted, undersized player fo
<< USA Today Top 25 Poll
The USA Today Preseason Top 25 football coaches poll, with team's 2009 records in parentheses, total points based on 25 points for first place through one point for 25th, ranking in the final poll of the 2009 season and first-place votes received:Re
<< Alabama is No. 1 in USA Today's preseason poll
TYSONS CORNER, Va. (AP) -Defending national champion Alabama is No. 1 atop the USA Today preseason coaches' poll.Boise State will begin the season ranked No. 5. The Broncos, like Alabama, finished last season 14-0. They beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.T
O's hope to continue success under new manager vs. White Sox >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles passed their first test under new
manager Buck Showalter with flying colors. Their next challenge figures to be
a little bit tougher, however, with the American League Central-leading
Chicago White Sox i
Angels pay a visit to Tigers in Motown >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Detroit
Tigers are fading in their respective division-title races. Good news is that
one club has to win tonight when the two teams kick off a three-game series at
Comeric
First meets worst as Padres, D-Backs begin divisional set >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres have a favorable road matchup this
weekend against the NL West-rival Arizona Diamondbacks, but the desert hasn't
been too kind lately for the current division leaders.
The Padres, who are two games ahe
Rolling Twins start series with last-place Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both the Minnesota Twins and Francisco Liriano will be
aiming to continue their respective hot streaks when the American League
Central contenders start up a three-game series with the Cleveland Indians
tonight at Progressive
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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